| Tip’s for Earnings Season – How to navigate choppy waters | | Print | |
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Remember the golden rule: it’s all about the future and how the analyst models a company’s growth in order to get a target share price. In terms of the past, all that’s necessary is to communicate results that are in the range of the market consensus, which has been based on company guidance. If they aren’t, stop here because an entirely different strategy is needed.
Don’t over elaborate on past results. Financial details go in the 10Q, which should be filed with the SEC within days of the earnings release.
Try and answer questions specific to your company and industry, focusing on targets that have been given in the past. Investors simply want an affirmation that the company did what it said it was going to do. Here are some suggestions for the earnings release and conference call, divided into: (1) results of the past quarter/year; and
(2) outlook.
Just a reminder, you don’t need to say that you were in line with guidance or consensus – the market knows that immediately.
Commentary on Results · Revenues: What were they and how much did they grow over the previous quarter and the same period the previous year? What were the drivers? Give geographical and product breakdown if appropriate to your business.
· Profitability: Disclose gross, operating, and net profits. Gross margins are the way analysts discern the real profitability of the company’s products and they use this metric to measure the strength of the business model. Operating margins show how efficient the company is in utilizing its R&D, as well as sales and marketing efforts. EPS (Earnings per Share) is the magic number that relates a company’s performance to its share price.
· Balance Sheet: Debt has become a major concern. Take a few minutes to review balance sheet fundamentals such as gearing (net debt/equity ratio), other liabilities, inventory turns, and DSOs (Days Sales Outstanding). Industry specific metrics are also appropriate here.
A table of key figures on the front page of the press release provides a quick snapshot and leaves room for the heart of the earnings release, which is the “guidance”, commonly referred to as the outlook.
Outlook It’s important to remember that a company’s outlook is the basis for its market valuation.
Stocks are bought and sold based on an estimated future stock price. Everything a company says (or not) is used to build the analyst’s financial model and estimate the target share price.
What metrics and timeframe can be used to guide the market on a company’s future performance? For the first earnings season of the year, the traditional outlook includes specific revenue and profitability targets, both for the current quarter and full year.
Looking at revenues, there is a lot of pressure to tell investors how the company’s growth will come in for the full year. But is this really necessary? If your company has a solid level of orders signed and delivery is underway, you can probably guide on revenues for the current quarter. Nevertheless, it is always best to give yourself a margin, even more so if you have any concerns about recording these revenues in the quarter.
If you have any lingering doubts about even quarterly revenue levels, there are some alternatives besides declining to give any guidance at all. Here are some other forward looking metrics that can help the analyst build a revenue forecast. When discussing these, keep in mind what you want to be deduced from your comments.
Turning to profitability, the market wants to know if a company is making money or if it will do so in the future. Remember, you don’t have to give specific targets, just try and highlight what the company is doing to improve its bottom line.
The Balance Sheet gives a snapshot of a company’s financial health. Specific financing issues that may occur during the year, objectives to improve inventory, DSOs, accounts receivable, or any industry specific metrics can be highlighted to give a measure of the company’s future underlying business fundamentals.
And now we come to the heart of the matter: the CEO/CFO’s comments. The written release is pretty easy if the above suggestions have been followed. The challenge is the earnings conference call itself and the tough questions. The most important thing to remember is that everything can be said in a positive way – not misleading information – but an indication that the company is on the right track for the future, even though it may be on a bumpy road at the current time. Investors are looking for optimism, confidence, and management competency.
Describe your business outlook in a way that does not create panic by avoiding words such as slowdown, softness, lack of demand, credit worries, etc. I’m not suggesting mis-representing your company’s outlook. However, to say that “we are seeing new growth in overseas markets, which we expect to offset our traditional domestic sales” sounds more reassuring than to say “we are seeing a slowdown in our domestic market.” Remember you are speaking to a group of very nervous investors who are measuring every word they hear. Hear are a few final suggestions for the conference call itself:
· Have a script, preferably in bullet points. Reading is not good, but following a plan is. Know what you want to say and develop the ideas and messages in a logical way throughout the conference call.
· Have a Q&A document. You know the tough questions and what your weak and strong points are. Write them down and come up with answers you want rather than be surprised.
· Practice with colleagues before going live – both the presentation and the answers to anticipated questions need to be rehearsed. If you decide on some alternative guidance metrics, stick to your story.
If you deviate from traditional guidance, you will encounter frustration and a hard push to go back to the norm. If you are prepared, it will be much easier to convey the message you want. Be patient and try to work with investors and analysts to help them understand the dynamics of your industry and your company as well as the new way you are guiding them for the future.
Regardless of your means of communicating earnings and the future outlook of the quarter, there will be a consensus formed by the investment community on your company’s future earnings. This current market environment requires more attention to investor needs and more management investment in investor relations.
Following these tips does not ensure the stock price will rally. This depends on the content of the messages and the company’s past and future performance. But what you will achieve is a coherent message to your shareholders that remains consistent as we move through this turbulent period.
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In today’s climate of economic worries, investors get spooked at the slightest event or comment. During this earnings season what can companies do to ensure that their message is the right one and avoid volatility in their stock price? Here are a few tips to keep in mind, which include what to say (or not) in the press release and earnings call, how to mitigate the “tone” of the message and finally, what to avoid.